EUR/USD
The pair is in the middle of a very strong downtrend and is testing fresh lows on a daily basis. The support level of 1.5650 has been breached and a bearish cross on the 4 hour cart's Slow Stochastic suggests further bearish move is impending. Going short might be preferable today, as the next target price might be around 1.5550.
GBP/USD
There is a very accurate bearish channel forming on the 4 hour chart, as the cable is now traded around 1.9750. A breach through that level will validate a very strong bearish move with a potential target price of 1.9670. Going short might be a wise choice today.
USD/JPY
After a moderate bearish correction, the pair has resumed its bullish trend. The Slow Stochastic on the daily chart is showing that the trend has plenty of room to grow, and a fresh cross on the 4 hour's Slow Stochastic supports that notion. Going long appears to be the right strategy for today.
USD/CHF
The pair has breached through the Fibonacci key level of 1.0310, and all oscillators on the 4 hours chart are indicating further bullish movement. The hourlies Bollinger Bands are showing that the price has crossed its upper border, signaling that the current trend should continue, as the pair's new target price might be 1.0370.
by forexyard
sugest by ferniawan rese
EUR/USD suggest short range target 10 pips closed
USD/JPY suggest long range target 10 pips closed
GBP/USD suggest short range target 10 pips closed
USD/CHF suggest long range target 10 pips closed
USD/CAD suggest short range target 10 pips closed
AUD/USD suggest short range target 10 pips closed
NZD/USD suggest short range target 10 pips closed
EUR/JPY suggest short range target 10 pips closed
EUR/GBP suggest - range target - pips closed
EUR/CHF suggest short range target 15 pips closed
GBP/JPY suggest short range target 10 pips closed
7 Jul 2008
forex analysis 07-07-08
The U.S. dollar reached its lowest value against the European currency in more than two months today as the traders are waiting ADP report on the June jobs dynamics and expect it to show a first decline in four months.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. reports on the employment in the non-farm private business sector each month, relying on the private data of its business clients. June report will be released today at 12:15 GMT and the median analysts’ forecast is a decline by 20k after 40k gain in May.
The dollar also declined against the Australian currency today as the macroeconomic statistics there pushed the AUD rate higher against almost all other currencies. Despite loses against euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars, USD managed to grow against the Great Britain pound today as the Bank of England will probably abstain from increasing the rates and may even cut the interest rate during its next meeting on July 10.
Although the dollar is trading quite low this week and is experiencing a downside daily trend against euro since June 16, in a longer term period the EUR/USD pair is still going sideways. The approach of the period’s maximum levels may trigger the sell-out on the pair by the range speculators.
EUR/USD went up today from 1.5793 to 1.5813 as of 8:26 GMT with a maximum at 1.5849 (the highest level since April 24). GBP/USD dropped 1.9953 to 1.9894, while AUD/USD rose from 0.9551 to 0.9608.
forex target target close target close profit
sell buy sell buy target sell
EUR/USD 1.566 1.576 10 pips
USD/JPY 10719 - 10729 - 10 pips
GBP/USD 19739 119749 10 pips
USD/CHF 10276 - 10286 - 10 pips
USD/CAD 10175 10185 13 pips
AUD /USD - 9535 - 9520 15 pips
NZD/USD 7530 - 7540 - 10 pips
EUR/JPY 16823 16833 10 pips
EUR/GBP 7950 - 7965 - 15 pips
EUR/CHF 16131 - 16141 - 10 pips
GBP/JPY - - - - -
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. reports on the employment in the non-farm private business sector each month, relying on the private data of its business clients. June report will be released today at 12:15 GMT and the median analysts’ forecast is a decline by 20k after 40k gain in May.
The dollar also declined against the Australian currency today as the macroeconomic statistics there pushed the AUD rate higher against almost all other currencies. Despite loses against euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars, USD managed to grow against the Great Britain pound today as the Bank of England will probably abstain from increasing the rates and may even cut the interest rate during its next meeting on July 10.
Although the dollar is trading quite low this week and is experiencing a downside daily trend against euro since June 16, in a longer term period the EUR/USD pair is still going sideways. The approach of the period’s maximum levels may trigger the sell-out on the pair by the range speculators.
EUR/USD went up today from 1.5793 to 1.5813 as of 8:26 GMT with a maximum at 1.5849 (the highest level since April 24). GBP/USD dropped 1.9953 to 1.9894, while AUD/USD rose from 0.9551 to 0.9608.
forex target target close target close profit
sell buy sell buy target sell
EUR/USD 1.566 1.576 10 pips
USD/JPY 10719 - 10729 - 10 pips
GBP/USD 19739 119749 10 pips
USD/CHF 10276 - 10286 - 10 pips
USD/CAD 10175 10185 13 pips
AUD /USD - 9535 - 9520 15 pips
NZD/USD 7530 - 7540 - 10 pips
EUR/JPY 16823 16833 10 pips
EUR/GBP 7950 - 7965 - 15 pips
EUR/CHF 16131 - 16141 - 10 pips
GBP/JPY - - - - -
6 Jul 2008
result analysis 03-07-08
Euro down :Market lower in thin volume as US goes on holiday
04.07.2008 12:52 Friday
•*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
•FR May Central Government Balance: -€50.1B v -€45.0B prior
•SP May Industrial Output WDA: -5.5% v -0.8%e || Prior revised from -0.2% to 0.2%
•SP May Industrial Output NSA: -7.3% v 11.3% prior || Prior revised from 11.3% to 11.8%
•GE May Factory Orders: M/M -0.9% v 0.8%e || Prior revised from -1.8% to -1.7% |||| Y/Y -2.0% v 2.0%e || Prior revised from 15.0% to 15.2%
•*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
•The ECB's Mersch said overnight that an ECB rate hike will not throttle growth, adding that inflation expectations are mounting and pose a dangerous situation. Mersch added that he cannot see any evidence of credit shortage in Europe. Mersch later said that ECB rate increase lowers inflation expectations. Mersch noted that inflation expectations are rising and that it is dangerous to the economy.
•In equity news overnight JP Morgan said in a note sent to clients that recent selling of European insurers is overdone. An analyst at Goldman Sachs said overnight that European banks may need to raise €60B, and may need to raise €90B if losses widen. An analyst at UBS said overnight that he sees a 5,100 "value floor" for the FTSE 100. UBS [UBSN.SZ] reiterated overnight that there is no need to raise new equity. Goldman Sachs cuts the European Basic Resources Sector to Neutral from Buy. UBS said that they see Q2 at or slightly below break-even, and guided Q2 tier 1 capital ratio at 11.5% or higher. The bank noted that Q2 net new money was negative but added that net new money improved in May and June. Furthermore UBS sees Q2 loss in its investment banking unit, and noted that writedowns in particular are linked to monoline exposure. Bradford and Bingley [BB.UK] announces overnight that it intends to increase the size of its rights issue to £400M. In related news Moody's downgraded Bradford And Bingley's debt ratings to Baa1. Moody's noted that long term ratings remain under review for possible downgrade.
•On the speaker front the ECB's Weber said overnight that the ECB's rate hike was not preventive, noting that price risks have materialized. Weber said that the ECB does not have a forex target but does take forex it into account, adding that the ECB cannot define a Euro forex pain barrier. Weber asserted that German firms remain competitive despite the Euro FX rate. Furthermore Weber said that the ECB hike could accentuate an economic slowdown, and reiterated that central banks must act against second round effects.
•The ECB's Trichet reiterated overnight that the ECB raised rates to fight developing price risks, adding that current interest rates will help to deliver stable prices. Trichet said that the ECB cannot influence oil price and current inflation, adding that increase in oil and commodity prices create a demanding environment. Trichet reiterated that second wage price effects must be prevented, and said that he expects financial market correction and volatility to continue. Trichet also reiterated overnight that Q2 economic growth will be well below that of Q1.
•The ECB's Liebscher said overnight that price risks have increased and are more visible than in the past. Liebscher echoed Trichet noting that the ECB does not have a bias, and does not pre-commit on monetary policy. Liebscher said that he see moderate but ongoing growth in the EU, adding that the ECB's rate hike will not hurt the European economy. Finally Liebscher said that he cannot rule out a further rise in inflation.
•The German Finance Minister said overnight that he sees downside risks to growth, adding the he does not see an economic downturn. The finance minster added that he sees moderate growth in Germany over the coming years.
•The Bank of Spain said in its quarterly economic bulletin overnight that Q2 Euro Zone date points to a continued slowdown in economic activity. The bulletin said that the correction in Spanish construction has intensified, especially in the housing sector. Furthermore the bulletin said that wage increases are growing at a faster rate in Q1 of 2008. Noting that the comments were made before the ECB's July 3rd meeting, the bulletin also said that the ECB is on high alert.
result 03-07-08
forex target buy target sell close target buy close target sell profit result
EUR/USD - 1,5701 - 1,5691 10 pips benefit closed
USD/JPY 106,7 - 106,85 - 15 pips benefit closed
GBP/USD - 19817 - 19800 17 pips benefit closed
USD/CHF 10276 - 10286 - 10 pips benefit closed
USD/CAD - 10213 - 10200 13 pips benefit closed
AUD /USD - 9602 - 9590 12 pips can`t close
NZD/USD 7555 - 7565 - 10 pips benefit closed
EUR/JPY - 16743 - 16730 13 pips benefit closed
EUR/GBP 7920 - 7935 - 15 pips can`t closed
EUR/CHF 16100 - 1615 - 15 pips can`t close
GBP/JPY - - - - - none
result benefit 7 part, can`t close 3 part
04.07.2008 12:52 Friday
•*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
•FR May Central Government Balance: -€50.1B v -€45.0B prior
•SP May Industrial Output WDA: -5.5% v -0.8%e || Prior revised from -0.2% to 0.2%
•SP May Industrial Output NSA: -7.3% v 11.3% prior || Prior revised from 11.3% to 11.8%
•GE May Factory Orders: M/M -0.9% v 0.8%e || Prior revised from -1.8% to -1.7% |||| Y/Y -2.0% v 2.0%e || Prior revised from 15.0% to 15.2%
•*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
•The ECB's Mersch said overnight that an ECB rate hike will not throttle growth, adding that inflation expectations are mounting and pose a dangerous situation. Mersch added that he cannot see any evidence of credit shortage in Europe. Mersch later said that ECB rate increase lowers inflation expectations. Mersch noted that inflation expectations are rising and that it is dangerous to the economy.
•In equity news overnight JP Morgan said in a note sent to clients that recent selling of European insurers is overdone. An analyst at Goldman Sachs said overnight that European banks may need to raise €60B, and may need to raise €90B if losses widen. An analyst at UBS said overnight that he sees a 5,100 "value floor" for the FTSE 100. UBS [UBSN.SZ] reiterated overnight that there is no need to raise new equity. Goldman Sachs cuts the European Basic Resources Sector to Neutral from Buy. UBS said that they see Q2 at or slightly below break-even, and guided Q2 tier 1 capital ratio at 11.5% or higher. The bank noted that Q2 net new money was negative but added that net new money improved in May and June. Furthermore UBS sees Q2 loss in its investment banking unit, and noted that writedowns in particular are linked to monoline exposure. Bradford and Bingley [BB.UK] announces overnight that it intends to increase the size of its rights issue to £400M. In related news Moody's downgraded Bradford And Bingley's debt ratings to Baa1. Moody's noted that long term ratings remain under review for possible downgrade.
•On the speaker front the ECB's Weber said overnight that the ECB's rate hike was not preventive, noting that price risks have materialized. Weber said that the ECB does not have a forex target but does take forex it into account, adding that the ECB cannot define a Euro forex pain barrier. Weber asserted that German firms remain competitive despite the Euro FX rate. Furthermore Weber said that the ECB hike could accentuate an economic slowdown, and reiterated that central banks must act against second round effects.
•The ECB's Trichet reiterated overnight that the ECB raised rates to fight developing price risks, adding that current interest rates will help to deliver stable prices. Trichet said that the ECB cannot influence oil price and current inflation, adding that increase in oil and commodity prices create a demanding environment. Trichet reiterated that second wage price effects must be prevented, and said that he expects financial market correction and volatility to continue. Trichet also reiterated overnight that Q2 economic growth will be well below that of Q1.
•The ECB's Liebscher said overnight that price risks have increased and are more visible than in the past. Liebscher echoed Trichet noting that the ECB does not have a bias, and does not pre-commit on monetary policy. Liebscher said that he see moderate but ongoing growth in the EU, adding that the ECB's rate hike will not hurt the European economy. Finally Liebscher said that he cannot rule out a further rise in inflation.
•The German Finance Minister said overnight that he sees downside risks to growth, adding the he does not see an economic downturn. The finance minster added that he sees moderate growth in Germany over the coming years.
•The Bank of Spain said in its quarterly economic bulletin overnight that Q2 Euro Zone date points to a continued slowdown in economic activity. The bulletin said that the correction in Spanish construction has intensified, especially in the housing sector. Furthermore the bulletin said that wage increases are growing at a faster rate in Q1 of 2008. Noting that the comments were made before the ECB's July 3rd meeting, the bulletin also said that the ECB is on high alert.
result 03-07-08
forex target buy target sell close target buy close target sell profit result
EUR/USD - 1,5701 - 1,5691 10 pips benefit closed
USD/JPY 106,7 - 106,85 - 15 pips benefit closed
GBP/USD - 19817 - 19800 17 pips benefit closed
USD/CHF 10276 - 10286 - 10 pips benefit closed
USD/CAD - 10213 - 10200 13 pips benefit closed
AUD /USD - 9602 - 9590 12 pips can`t close
NZD/USD 7555 - 7565 - 10 pips benefit closed
EUR/JPY - 16743 - 16730 13 pips benefit closed
EUR/GBP 7920 - 7935 - 15 pips can`t closed
EUR/CHF 16100 - 1615 - 15 pips can`t close
GBP/JPY - - - - - none
result benefit 7 part, can`t close 3 part
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